This is a free preview of MTC 35… In this note:
Market update: Bearish ETHBTC again
A look at crypto trading volumes
Bear markets are depressing. This crypto bear market is no exception.
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MTC 35
Market update
Remember The Merge? That feels like ages ago. ETH continues to chop out a multi-year top against BTC as the story for now is:
No new catalysts for ETH on the horizon post-Merge
Institutional interest in digital yield is existent but not game changing
Regulatory risk remains pernicious unless your coin is called “bitcoin”
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One might argue that ETHBTC staying way up here in the depths of a bear market is kind of encouraging given ETH is the high beta.
ETH vs. BTC Flippening percentage (2017 to now)
But I would read it the other way: With The Merge over, ETH facing hundreds of competing PoS tokens, BTC facing zero PoW competition, and higher regulatory risk for ETH than BTC… ETHBTC is way too high.
ETHBTC, 2017 to now
Reversion to the mean around 0.047 makes sense to me. If you run multi-month swing trades, the risk/reward is great with a stop loss above 0.085. Risking 1.5 to make 2.5 kinda thing. Either way, I would much rather be long BTC than ETH for now.
Crypto Volumes
I have seen some headlines saying NFT volumes down 99% and similar types of things and given the hysterical nature of clickbait headline writing, I wanted to check for myself. This got me wondering about the overall state of crypto trading volumes and so I decided to do a bit of a deep dive.
Here come the charts!
First, daily exchange volume from The Block. That is a great resource for crypto data. If you squint, you can see volumes have gone from a peak of about $88B to an average around $20B these days. Down 75% approximately from the highs, but still 4X volumes pre-COVID.
Overall crypto volumes 2019 to now
To cross-check that data, here’s Coinbase volume:
Next, I took a look at exchange volumes. I would say bitcoin futures, BITO and MSTR are the three best listed proxies for now. Here are US dollar volumes of those three, back to 2017…
This has been a free preview of the latest MTC. The rest of the note goes over crypto volumes and the depressing state of crypto at the moment.
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bd
Absolutely loving your content Brent, would you be open to allowing us to share it with our 60k+ audience as well?
Absolutely loving your content Brent, would you be open to allowing us to share it with our 60k+ audience as well?